|
Post by Earl Purple on Aug 11, 2015 10:33:42 GMT 1
Ok, the obvious first:
Chelsea, Man City: The title will be between these two again. I hope it is an exciting one.
Man Utd, Arsenal: These teams will finish 3rd and 4th not necessarily in that order. A shame because I'd like to see everything more competitive. Arsenal did well at the end of last season but losing their opening game suggests they're going to drop too many silly points early on and will find themselves too far behind again. (Yeah I know Chelsea also dropped points at home).
Liverpool, Tottenham: These teams will be fighting over rights for 5th/6th again. I think both clubs are probably a bit better than last season and they got those positions last season with Spurs squeezing into 5th on the last day with Liverpool's late season demise but were way off the top 4 and neither club will make it in this season either.
Swansea, Southampton, Stoke, Crystal Palace: These will be safe mid-table teams. Unfortunately in the latter case because I'd really like to see their demise. Some are saying they'll finish as high as 7th or 8th and they might but then so may one of the others on that list.
West Ham: People have been predicting them to struggle this season but then they predicted us to as well. Obviously Sunday was just one win but shows they're probably safe enough. (Having said that Aston Villa won away at Arsenal on the opening game 2 seasons ago then still had a big struggle).
Everton: Were nearly a giant 2 seasons ago then had a poor season. I have no idea how they'll do but they won't be relegated.
Newcastle, Aston Villa: The great underachievers. Both big clubs who just avoided the drop last season and really in Newcastle's case they had a good early run to thank because they were in freefall and hanging on at the end. Villa have sold big players but we'll see whether Tim Sherwood has the credentials. A good opening win against a fellow struggler but they'll need a lot more than that.
West Brom, Sunderland: The most likely of the long runners to get sucked into a relegation battle.
Leicester: We know great escapers never seem to carry it forward. Yes they won their first game but that was "only" Sunderland. Second season syndrome perhaps and they may have to hope there are enough worse teams than them.
Bournemouth, Watford, Norwich: Something tells me Bournemouth are here for the ride. They lost a crucial game, Norwich were very unlucky with a bad refereeing decision but still those are the games they need to be winning. Watford surprised everyone and it's a good point but still 2 dropped given how late Everton equalised. Could be all 3 going up last season go down again unless one of Leicester / Sunderland / West Brom prove simply worse in which case one of these could amount a "miraculous" escape, and probably Norwich are the best equipped to do that.
|
|
|
Post by Earl Purple on Aug 11, 2015 14:51:08 GMT 1
Championship clubs. I'll just list them in the order they finished last season, starting with the relegated ones and finishing with those who have been promoted in:
Hull, QPR, Burnley: Hull couldn't quite make it but looked the strongest going into the final few games, and lost it really when they lost at home to Burnley and others around them were all picking up points. They are probably the best equipped of the 3. Burnley are always a club "too small" for the Premier League and stuck with the hopes of the team getting them there in particular Ings being good enough to stay up. They sold him so we'll have to see how they cope with his loss. QPR though are a team of prima donna superstars who think they should be higher than they are and the one I'd most expect to struggle, a bit like Fulham did last season although like that club they probably have enough to stay up although there are no guarantees. Being outplayed by Charlton has put them in their place.
Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Brentford: Failures from the playoffs are always hopeful and often it's a matter of picking themselves up and strengthening but so often it doesn't happen, and can often lead to a relegation the next season. The most likely to suffer that are Brentford, the others will be among the stronger contenders for promotion. For Ipswich it's been steady progression, but Middlesbrough look best equipped for first or second.
Derby, Wolves: Last season Derby fell well short of expectation in the end and are marked as favourites this season with a new manager. Wolves did well after bouncing back from 2 consecutive relegations. I don't know if they have enough but will be safe.
Blackburn, Birmingham, Cardiff: Emerged in the top end of the pack. That Birmingham did so after such a bad start and just avoiding the drop the previous season indicates they are on the "way up" and you'd expect them to carry that into this season but they seem to be marked as a relegation candidate. Not sure why. Cardiff are a mis-managed club and I expect nothing from them. Blackburn may lose some of their best players and will probably end mid-table somewhere. Nobody thinks of them as a big club even though they were several years in the Premier League until 2012.
Charlton, Sheff Wed: We've been close to each other a long time in finishing positions in the league and last season only goals scored separated us but they are suggesting good things for Wednesday and originally relegation for us. Both of us won our first game. I don't know what is happening at Wednesday at present.
Nottingham Forest: Always hopeful, did well in parts last season but once it was over seemed to collapse worse than the others. Still may achieve this time but I doubt it.
Leeds, Huddersfield: The two neighbours both had poor seasons, although the former expect more than the latter but both I reckoned Leeds had more chance of relegation than promotion last season and Huddersfield were one of my favourites to go down and they would have done had they not hired the wonderful Chris Powell to save them. They start with him now but will be struggling. Leeds will most likely be safe but that's about it.
Fulham, Bolton, Reading: Fulham and Reading were among the favourites but the former again had high expectations about themselves and Reading did reach a cup semi-final but being near playoffs the previous year was not something they were able to accomplish, and are likely to find themselves in the wrong end again this season.
Brighton, Rotherham: Just surviving the drop, and Brighton having been a playoff team the previous season. Rotherham did above themselves to stay up when they were favourites to drop, but don't know if they have anything left now. Brighton have won their opening game so we'll see about them but they must also be among the favourites to be in a struggle.
Bristol City, MK Dons, Preston: (promoted teams)
Bristol City came up flying and you'd expect them to survive but life is a lot different here. Previous seasons' champions have done well here (we did the worst of the recent ones and even we managed 9th in our first season). MK Dons started well but it was "only" Rotherham and Preston will always be made a favourite to go down after getting a playoff promotion but those have survived before.
|
|
Tom
Member
*Of Royal Blood*
Posts: 15,419
|
Post by Tom on Aug 15, 2015 10:17:14 GMT 1
If De Gea leaves Man Utd and they don't bring in a decent replacement (Romero is no more than a no 2) then i'd put them down to about 70.
Here's the rest: 7 Crystal Palace 59 - fairly unimpressed with the signings they've made (I also think given their attacking options 1 or 2 players may go) but they're still best of the rest after what Pardew did last season. 8 Everton 57 - no European football will help 9 Swansea 56 10 West Brom 52/53 11 Sunderland 52 12 Stoke 51 13 Newcastle 49
The final lot will all be in a relegation battle 14 Norwich 42 - Alex Neil had an amazing impact last season and I wouldn't have put them in a relegation scrap but he's made poor signings. 15 Southampton 42 - Feel bad for putting them this low but Schneiderlein is a big loss and I think they're going to take the Europa League seriously, can see them making the knockout stages. The worse they do in that competition the higher I think they'll be here. 16 Bournemouth 42 17 Villa 33 - Benteke and Delph gone and I don't know if they've replaced them adequately, Gestede for one is unproven at this level. Micah Richards is a fine signing though. Sherwood has got to hope he can make more signings with PL experience or that his signings from France work well. As it is I think there'll be 3 worse teams than them. 18 West Ham 26 - Before Razzle Dazzle gets upset, there are 3 reasons for this. Bilic is unproven in the PL, Downing is a huge loss, and Valencia is injured for 3 months. 19 Leicester 21 - I don't know whether Ranieri is a good or bad appointment, but he's not Nigel Pearson and I think that makes a big difference. 20 Watford 20 Appointing a manager with no English experience and making 9 new signings is a massive gamble and I can see it ending in tears. They may end up with more points though as if they do as badly as this then i'm not convinced Sanchez will last the season.
Might need to revise your West Ham prediction Tom I knew Payet was good but you never know until they play in the Premiership, if he stays fit West Ham will be comfortably top 10, I know its only one game but that was the best West Ham performance and result for 6 year, and that was without Valencia, Carroll, Obiang, Jenkinson or Lanzini (with maybe Song? or a new forward player coming in) I hadn't heard of Payet before so didn't know how good he was. It is only one game though, let's see where West Ham are at the end of the month
Reading have been linked to Chalobah. If we manage to bring him back, and it appears wages are an issue, then i'm going to revise my expectation to top half. I'm already starting to feel increasingly optimistic that we might yet challenge for the playoffs this season.
|
|
|
Post by Razzle Dazzle on Aug 15, 2015 11:09:30 GMT 1
Yeah its hard to tell after 1 game but i will bet my house that west ham won't finish 26 points behind Sunderland unless they get deducted 30 points
Most the "top" pundits were having a pop, tipping West Ham to go down based purely on Big Sam leaving before the Arsenal game. Sam came out the other day saying he tried to win every game. I laughed because he decides his subs pre game and brings them on regardless. I lost count of the number of times he beought Joey O'brien on in the 60th minute for a forward and just get battered. Sometimes we threw away points. Others we got lucky and kept the opponents out. Bilic managed to have 44% possession away to Arsenal in the first half. Not even Man U or Chelsea could go there and retain that much of the ball, might be only one game but one game is all we have to go on.
He has recruited well, Ogbonna, Italian international CB who played 50 games for Juventus, Payet created the most chances in the top European leagues last season in France. Jenkinson and Lanzini on loan, the latter an unknown quantity. Obiang from Sampdoria. He is also giving youth a chance, has the core team that took us top 4 last season before Sam imploded and only lost Downing (but replaced him with Payer who is twice the player). Early days but there's more to be positive about after 1 game than the last 5 year so that can't be bad
|
|
|
Post by Earl Purple on Aug 17, 2015 16:23:31 GMT 1
Tomorrow we play Forest away who are always overrated. Our record against them in 3 seasons in this division is even, 2 wins each and 2 draws.
We did just draw away at Derby who are again one of the favourites. Our record against them is just 1 win (3-2 at home early last season), 2 draws now and 4 defeats.
|
|
|
Post by Razzle Dazzle on Oct 24, 2015 23:52:11 GMT 1
Might need to revise your West Ham prediction Tom I knew Payet was good but you never know until they play in the Premiership, if he stays fit West Ham will be comfortably top 10, I know its only one game but that was the best West Ham performance and result for 6 year, and that was without Valencia, Carroll, Obiang, Jenkinson or Lanzini (with maybe Song? or a new forward player coming in) I hadn't heard of Payet before so didn't know how good he was. It is only one game though, let's see where West Ham are at the end of the month Â
Reading have been linked to Chalobah. If we manage to bring him back, and it appears wages are an issue, then i'm going to revise my expectation to top half. I'm already starting to feel increasingly optimistic that we might yet challenge for the playoffs this season.
Well even I didn't expect things to go this well. Safe to say after 10 games west ham will be top half this season. Don't worry Leicester and Watford are mugging me off as well
|
|
|
Post by suedehead on Oct 24, 2015 23:59:17 GMT 1
Four Four Two's predictions: PREMIER LEAGUE 1. Chelsea 19. Leicester CHAMPIONSHIP 23. Brighton Some of these predictions aren't looking too good at the moment
|
|
|
Post by Panda on Oct 25, 2015 1:12:08 GMT 1
Some of these predictions aren't looking too good at the moment So? They're looking better than yours.
|
|
Tom
Member
*Of Royal Blood*
Posts: 15,419
|
Post by Tom on Oct 25, 2015 17:44:49 GMT 1
I hadn't heard of Payet before so didn't know how good he was. It is only one game though, let's see where West Ham are at the end of the month
Reading have been linked to Chalobah. If we manage to bring him back, and it appears wages are an issue, then i'm going to revise my expectation to top half. I'm already starting to feel increasingly optimistic that we might yet challenge for the playoffs this season.
Well even I didn't expect things to go this well. Safe to say after 10 games west ham will be top half this season. Don't worry Leicester and Watford are mugging me off as well Given how West Ham, Leicester and Watford are doing, I think Villa will go down this season, especially if at least one of Newcastle or Sunderland survive.
That playoff challenge suggestion for Reading is looking good so far. But with the signings we made at the end of the transfer window and Lady Sassima's comments (one of the Thai owners) just after it shut I think anything less than Top 6 will be considered failure this season. Tbh up until the last week a title challenge looked realistic. I don't think it's just a coincidence that we've fallen away with the news that Stephen Quinn and Hal Robson-Kanu are out long-term. HRK's injury is particularly disappointing as it seems he was in peak form and I actually feared one of our Welsh players getting injured during the last international break, and he was most likely with Gunter's excellent injury record.
|
|
|
Post by Razzle Dazzle on Oct 25, 2015 22:34:17 GMT 1
Yeah I think Aston Villa are in huge trouble. They spent close to 60m and brought in mostly rubbish. Sunderland can only beat Newcastle and well Newcastle are hit and miss. Mostly miss
|
|
|
Post by Shireblogger on May 3, 2016 10:35:58 GMT 1
So, how did we all do predicting Leicester's season ? 442, Razzle Dazzle and Tom all had Leicester finishing 19th. smokeyb said 18th. Congratulations to Panda, who said they would avoid relegation, finishing 17th. But I got closest, with a 16th placed finish predicted. Collectively, this probably makes us better than the pundits who earn a living from this sort of thing.
|
|
|
Post by Razzle Dazzle on May 3, 2016 13:16:04 GMT 1
Interesting nobe of us had villa to go down. Nevermind finish bottom by a mile
I knew Leicester would come back to haunt me ha
|
|
|
Post by Panda on May 3, 2016 16:19:50 GMT 1
My predictions: NORTHERN LEAGUE DIVISION ONE Top 3: Dunston, Shildon, Consett Relegated: Bedlington, West Auckland, Norton NORTHERN LEAGUE DIVISION TWO Promoted: South Shields, Team Northumbria, Heaton Stannington Relegated: Brandon, Esh Winning WEARSIDE LEAGUE Champions: Stockton NORTHERN ALLIANCE Champions: Carlisle City TEESSIDE LEAGUE Champions: Whinney Banks Dunston and Consett under-achieved massively in the league, leaving Shildon as runaway champions. Marske United are well on course to finish 2nd a year after winning the title, exceeding my expectations for the season, with Guisborough and FA Vase finalists Morpeth battling for 3rd. Bedlington and Norton are both down from Division 1 and West Auckland were down there for much of the season before finding some form, leaving Durham City as the likely third relegated side, though they still have an outside chance of overtaking West Allotment Celtic. As expected, South Shields ran away with Division 2. Chester-le-Street were the surprise of the season, gaining promotion along with Ryhope, with Team Northumbria just missing out. At the bottom, Stokesley and Birtley Town drop out of the league, with Esh Winning just escaping relegation again. Stockton are on the verge of winning the Wearside League again and will be in the Northern League for the first time next season. Blyth Town are likely to win the Northern Alliance and move into the Northern League, though Carlisle City may also gain promotion but will be placed in the North West Counties League. Boro Rangers are likely to finish as surprise winners in the Teesside League, though Whinney Banks can still catch them. No team will be moving up from the Teesside League to the Northern League.
|
|
|
Post by Shireblogger on May 3, 2016 18:15:44 GMT 1
^^^ Clearly, you know your Northern Leagues Panda. Those were some really accurate predictions.
|
|
Tom
Member
*Of Royal Blood*
Posts: 15,419
|
Post by Tom on May 3, 2016 19:45:13 GMT 1
Interesting none of us had villa to go down. Nevermind finish bottom by a mile They were my next most likely to go down though. And I did feel that if one of my bottom 3 did better than I predicted, and I was less sure about my West Ham prediction after our discussion earlier in the season, then they might go. Obviously they've had a particularly poor season but I wouldn't say i'm surprised they've gone down at all.
It will be interesting to see who they appoint as their new manager, but atm i'm not expecting them to be in and around the top 6 next season.
|
|
|
Post by Razzle Dazzle on May 3, 2016 19:50:01 GMT 1
Yeah I noticed we both had villa down by October when we had a chat. I'm not surprised they went down. I had them just to survive too.
Almost everyone had villa to finish above Leicester though, only Shireblogger had them the other way round in 16th and 17th. So although it's not a shock they Villa went down we all thought Villa were more capable of winning the league than Leicester were!
|
|
|
Post by Shireblogger on May 11, 2016 22:10:10 GMT 1
So, Newcastle are going to finish 18th or 19th. What did Mystic Haven say ? Panda: 8th Shireblogger: 9th Razzle Dazzle: 12th smokeyb: 12th Tom: 13th 442: 14th Yep, the verdict is in. Newcastle bombed almost as spectacularly as Villa. Sorry Robbie.
|
|
|
Post by Razzle Dazzle on May 11, 2016 22:37:20 GMT 1
34 points from 37 games is tragic. The year west ham went down on 42 points they needed 45 to stay up. That was a freak season but it just shows in a bad year it is possible to go down on 44/45 points
|
|
|
Post by Earl Purple on May 13, 2016 14:27:58 GMT 1
Essentially I predicted both clubs would struggle although in the final analysis I didn't pick them as candidates to actually go down. Possibly because I thought they'd make big signings in the transfer window if things were going badly.
Newcastle actually had 2 good wins against Liverpool and Tottenham just before Christmas to give them a false dawn. Villa were just pathetic all season.
Last time Villa were relegated, another "big" club, Manchester City fell with them. (And the mighty Leicester City! But we avoided going down by winning the playoffs to survive).
Villa came straight back up, struggled a bit first season then came 2nd twice out of the next 4. Man City took 2 seasons to come back up and got a couple of 5th places finishes.
Once this division has fully ended I will run through each club with a bit of post-season analysis.
|
|
|
Post by Earl Purple on May 15, 2016 19:01:05 GMT 1
Ok, technically the season has not finished: still.
1. Leicester: What an incredible season. Finished with 81 points, lost just 3 times, two of those against Arsenal.
2. Arsenal: Sort-of lucky to end up in 2nd place and would have been disappointed with 3rd behind Tottenham but I think the fans will forgive Wenger now, and even 3rd would have been as good as they probably realistically expected pre-season.
3. Tottenham: Would have been very happy with 3rd pre-season but with all the hype of them being title challengers which they never really were, then a total collapse to finish below Arsenal, they will be extremely disapponted. Something seriously needs to happen though if they're not to start next season the way they ended this.
4. Manchester City: Champions league semi-final and won the League Cup but really a disappointing season. They were in the chase really until they had two home games against Leicester and Tottenham, which should have been proof of who was really the best team. Well maybe it was as they lost both. Still, had West Ham to thank for being able to quality for the Champions League anyway.
5. Manchester United: (Assuming they get something against Bournemouth and don't win 19-0). A long time ago, winning the FA Cup, if they manage that, would have been a decent season but not qualifying for the champions league seems to matter so much more now.
6. Southampton: Very good season. One small bad run or they could have been in the top 4.
7. West Ham: Also excelled themselves and could have been in the top 4, but for some bad games and a couple of unfavourable refereeing decisions that might have changed things.
8. Liverpool. If they can win the Europa League that will make up for everything, otherwise disappointing, obviously.
9. Stoke. Surprised they finished as high as 9th. They always seem to be safe and you never expect them to go down, nor do you ever expect them to be any higher than this.
10. Chelsea. Obviously biggest disappointment of the whole season. 10th, really?? And no cup run to show either.
11. Everton. Not good enough to keep their manager, although in reality nobody really expected them to either finish in the champions league places (maybe Europa Cup) or be relegated.
12. Swansea. Had a bad run that made them look like relegation candidates but were always too good to go down.
13. Watford. They surprised me by finishing this high and never looked like going down.
14. West Brom. Another club I saw as potential relegation candidates but they were safe all the way through.
15. Crystal Palace. Great start then slump and then just about had enough to pull away. If they win the FA Cup though it will be seen as a great season for them.
16. Bournemouth: Technically not 16th yet as they might get something against Manchester United. Either way, did well to finish safe.
17. Sunderland: Is just avoiding relegation good enough? I don't think so, and I think they'll be expecting to be at least safe mid-table throughout next year and will be aiming for about 11th place minimum.
18. Newcastle: If only they could have played Tottenham every week. They had just too much to do in the end, but I'm expecting them to bounce straight back. Of course the season is played over 38 games and 37 points is not enough. Poor season.
19. Norwich: And for periods they looked like they would be ok. I guess it wasn't to be.
20. Aston Villa: Total shambles.
|
|