Thor
Member
Why can't this moment last forever more?
Posts: 22,606
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Post by Thor on Jun 13, 2008 16:34:23 GMT 1
I'd include their losses to Northern Ireland and Sweden Surely you can't include some but not all of a qualifying campaign?
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Post by Panda on Jun 13, 2008 16:43:21 GMT 1
I'd include their losses to Northern Ireland and Sweden Surely you can't include some but not all of a qualifying campaign? I think 2 years is a reasonable time-frame to have if results are added/dropped on a month-by-month basis, so older results will become irrelevant as time goes on. There's over a year between the start of a qualifying campaign and the end and some teams can change a lot over that time. Eventually results from the start of a qualifying campaign will drop off as they cease to be relevant and will usually coincide with the start of the latest qualifying competition. I should've included results starting from the end of the last World Cup but when I was testing it out I just did a few teams based on results from the start of '07 and ended up adding more and more teams (I'm up to 100 now) and it's too late to go back now. Plus it makes it easier to update for the next few months, during which time I can decide whether I can be arsed doing it on a regular basis.
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Thor
Member
Why can't this moment last forever more?
Posts: 22,606
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Post by Thor on Jun 13, 2008 16:46:39 GMT 1
I'd include their losses to Northern Ireland and Sweden Surely you can't include some but not all of a qualifying campaign? I think 2 years is a reasonable time-frame to have if results are added/dropped on a month-by-month basis, so older results will become irrelevant as time goes on. There's over a year between the start of a qualifying campaign and the end and some teams can change a lot over that time. Eventually results from the start of a qualifying campaign will drop off as they cease to be relevant and will usually coincide with the start of the latest qualifying competition. I should've included results starting from the end of the last World Cup but when I was testing it out I just did a few teams based on results from the start of '07 and ended up adding more and more teams (I'm up to 100 now) and it's too late to go back now. Plus it makes it easier to update for the next few months, during which time I can decide whether I can be arsed doing it on a regular basis. What if a team has all their hard games at the start of a campaign? Your rankings would be unbalanced.
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Post by Panda on Jun 13, 2008 17:00:33 GMT 1
I think 2 years is a reasonable time-frame to have if results are added/dropped on a month-by-month basis, so older results will become irrelevant as time goes on. There's over a year between the start of a qualifying campaign and the end and some teams can change a lot over that time. Eventually results from the start of a qualifying campaign will drop off as they cease to be relevant and will usually coincide with the start of the latest qualifying competition. I should've included results starting from the end of the last World Cup but when I was testing it out I just did a few teams based on results from the start of '07 and ended up adding more and more teams (I'm up to 100 now) and it's too late to go back now. Plus it makes it easier to update for the next few months, during which time I can decide whether I can be arsed doing it on a regular basis. What if a team has all their hard games at the start of a campaign? Your rankings would be unbalanced. I'm not claiming my system's perfect but I think it's an improvement on FIFA's. I don't think using 4 years (or more) of results gives the best indication of who is the best team in the world today. Any imbalance in the strength of a qualifying schedule would even itself out over the course of the campaign and they would of course have the results of the overlapping campaign to add as well. The teams decide their own schedules (to a certain extent anyway) so if they want a difficult start/end, that's up to them. What it does mean is that the rankings would be at their most accurate (taking your point into consideration) after a major tournament, whilst the rest of the time, it just makes things interesting...
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Post by Panda on Jun 22, 2008 15:52:56 GMT 1
Spain are now top of the Elo ratings! I rule.
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Post by Earl Purple on Jun 22, 2008 16:08:19 GMT 1
I suppose England aren't ranked too highly then. How about Israel?
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Post by Panda on Jun 22, 2008 16:14:22 GMT 1
I suppose England aren't ranked too highly then. How about Israel? My rankings: Israel 23 England 25 Elo: England 9 Israel 32 Roon Ba: England 7 Israel 24 FIFA: England 9 Israel 22
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Post by Panda on Jun 30, 2008 21:05:20 GMT 1
Here is the first trial version of my rankings following Euro 2008: (FIFA rankings are in brackets) 1(1) Spain 2(7) Croatia 3(3) Germany 4(5) Netherlands 5(2) Italy 6(11) Russia 7(6) Argentina 8(4) Brazil 9(9) Portugal 10(12) Romania 11(8) Czech Republic 12(14) Turkey 13(18) Greece 14(49) Saudi Arabia 15(30) United States 16(32) Poland 17(24) Egypt 18(17) Bulgaria 19(10) France 20(34) Japan 21(13) Cameroon 22(19) Mexico 23(28) Ivory Coast 24(21) Israel 25(20) Ghana 26(22) Uruguay 27(15) England 28(23) Colombia 29(26) Sweden 30(55) Uzbekistan 31(27) Nigeria 32(16) Scotland 33(31) Norway 34(47) Tunisia 35(37) Iran 36(37) Morocco 37(61) Venezuela 38(43) Chile 39(48) Honduras 40(25) Paraguay 41(54) Wales 42(51) Mali 43(41) Ireland 44(102) Syria 45(39) Guinea 46(33) Northern Ireland 47(36) Denmark 48(53) South Korea 49(58) Iraq 50(86) Oman 51(29) Ukraine 52(72) Bahrain 53(119) Haiti 54(59) Lithuania 55(50) Moldova 56(52) Hungary 57(77) Canada 58(35) Serbia 59(42) Senegal 60(63) Cyprus 61(111) Thailand 62(61) Angola 63(96) Armenia 64(87) Rwanda 65(66) Latvia 66(83) China 67(126) New Caledonia 68(44) Finland 69(104) Guatemala 70(40) Australia 71(87) Surinam 72(117) El Salvador 73(94) North Korea 74(106) United Arab Emirates 75(67) South Africa 76(100) Albania 77(---) Guadeloupe 78(90) Libya 79(73) Zambia 80(80) Qatar 81(110) Sudan 82(76) Democratic Rep. of Congo 83(46) Belgium 84(97) Uganda 85(102) Trinidad & Tobago 86(79) Costa Rica 87(92) Kenya 88(74) Bosnia-Herzegovina 89(81) Slovenia 90(45) Switzerland 91(57) Belarus 92(56) Macedonia 93(69) Panama 94(127) Singapore 95(74) Gabon 96(136) Solomon Islands 97(65) Slovakia 98(85) Cape Verde 99(100) Congo 100(99) Benin 101(154) Tajikistan 102(64) Burkina Faso 103(71) Bolivia 104(112) Botswana 105(67) Peru 106(114) Jordan 107(109) Mozambique 108(89) Georgia 109(153) India 110(135) Antigua & Barbuda 111(124) Kazakhstan 112(149) Netherlands Antilles 113(60) Ecuador 114(148) Fiji 115(93) Algeria 116(98) Iceland 117(130) Madagascar 118(82) Zimbabwe 119(120) Hong Kong 120(78) Cuba 121(161) Sri Lanka 122(166) Turks & Caicos Islands 123(146) Puerto Rico 124(91) Gambia 125(112) New Zealand 126(69) Togo 127(139) Grenada 128(84) Equatorial Guinea 129(94) Jamaica 130(120) Estonia 131(139) Azerbaijan 132(132) Indonesia 133(146) Montenegro 134(---) Kosovo 135(118) Bermuda 136(115) Tanzania 137(155) Vanuatu 138(131) Namibia 139(129) Liechtenstein 140(108) Ethiopia 141(158) Turkmenistan 142(124) Vietnam 143(157) Samoa 144(169) Philippines 145(127) Chad 146(142) Eritrea 146(107) Malawi 148(156) Maldvies 148(177) Nepal 150(105) Austria 151(133) Burundi 151(123) Swaziland 153(150) Lebanon 154(169) Pakistan 155(145) Kyrgyzstan 156(137) Barbados 157(159) Lesotho 158(---) Martinique 159(176) Taiwan 160(171) British Virgin Islands 161(143) Yemen 162(137) Sierra Leone 163(116) Kuwait 164(134) Malta 165(181) Afghanistan 166(122) Guyana 167(172) Niger 168(152) Luxembourg 169(139) Liberia 170(---) Zanzibar 171(166) Malaysia 172(164) Burma 173(160) St. Kitts & Nevis 174(179) Tahiti 175(144) Mauritania 176(162) St. Lucia 177(174) Guinea-Bissau 177(---) Reunion 179(163) Mauritius 180(175) Belize 181(165) Seychelles 182(190) Bhutan 183(199) Cook Islands 183(179) Tonga 185(185) Nicaragua 186(184) Cambodia 187(---) Mayotte 188(151) St. Vincent & the Grenadines 189(182) Bangladesh 190(186) Djibouti 191(166) Bahamas 192(187) Cayman Islands 193(192) Mongolia 194(191) Dominica 195(199) Guam 196(193) US Virgin Islands 197(187) Brunei 198(---) Tuvalu 199(---) Tibet 200(183) Andorra 201(194) Comoros 202(196) Macao 203(177) Dominican Republic 203(---) French Guiana 203(199) Montserrat 203(---) Northern Cyprus 203(199) Papua New Guinea 203(---) Saint Martin 209(198) Central African Republic 209(---) Northern Mariana Islands 209(172) Palestine 212(199) Anguilla 212(199) Aruba 212(199) East Timor 215(199) American Samoa 215(197) Somalia 217(195) Faroe Islands 218(199) San Marino 219(189) Laos 220(---) Sao Tome & Principe 220(---) Sint Maarten
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Post by Panda on Jul 2, 2008 17:31:47 GMT 1
Edited to include the latest FIFA rankings.
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Si.
Member
Posts: 2,087
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Post by Si. on Jul 3, 2008 21:40:48 GMT 1
Out of interest, who is the most distorted between the rankings?
They do seem rather skewed from the Euros however, I guess that there would be lots of changes at the top?
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Post by Panda on Jul 4, 2008 9:19:43 GMT 1
Out of interest, who is the most distorted between the rankings? They do seem rather skewed from the Euros however, I guess that there would be lots of changes at the top? If you mean the biggest difference in positions between mine and FIFA's rankings then a few that stand out are: Syria 44-102 Haiti 53-119 Thailand 61-111 New Caledonia 67-126 Switzerland 90-45 Ecuador 113-60 Togo 126-69 The Euros have obviously had an effect which will be lessened when I do the first proper version, which will be based on the last 2 years' results (this version only counts results from the start of 2007). That said, with the inconsistent form of Brazil and Argentina, I feel their positions are a fair indication of current form, which is the intention of these rankings. Also, Spain probably would've been #1 even if they'd lost that penalty shoot-out to Italy. Since the beginning of 2007, they've played 22, won 19 and drawn 3. Croatia have played 19, won 13, drawn 4 and lost 2. Argentina have played 21, won 13, drawn 5 and lost 3. England have played 16, won 9, drawn 2 and lost 5. My list also contains non-FIFA teams who have played matches against FIFA teams.
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Si.
Member
Posts: 2,087
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Post by Si. on Jul 4, 2008 9:55:32 GMT 1
It will be better once we get to the start of next year. Its all good though, the FIFA rankings mean nothing, and at least this shows who are the most consistent teams. And if Australia were still in Oceania they would have been right up there!
Keep up the good work, I can imagine this takes a while to sort out.
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Post by Panda on Jul 4, 2008 10:18:11 GMT 1
It will be better once we get to the start of next year. Its all good though, the FIFA rankings mean nothing, and at least this shows who are the most consistent teams. And if Australia were still in Oceania they would have been right up there! Keep up the good work, I can imagine this takes a while to sort out. Australia's a difficult one to judge. They wouldn't necessarily have picked up more positive results as they wouldn't have been playing as many games, though they do play a lot more friendlies than New Zealand. Their poor showing in the Asian Cup last year has damaged their position on my list, whilst in FIFA's rankings, they're still living off their performance at the last World Cup. Thanks for the comments. It did take a few weeks to put all the information together but it will hopefully be simple enough to keep up-to-date. There won't be a lot of movement in my rankings next month, as there are only a few internationals taking place in July.
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Post by Panda on Aug 1, 2008 15:20:39 GMT 1
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