Post by Shireblogger on Nov 16, 2020 18:12:06 GMT 1
All votes are in, the scores have been added up, and the SPECULATION can start.
Eighteen (82%) of the acts featured were making their first appearance in HTM:10s. The four who had been picked previously finished 2nd, 2nd, 8th and 11th. Will any of them improve on their previous result ?
The majority of the acts in this round were British or part-British : 77% to be precise.
Nine people have already won a round of HTM:10s, but 13 haven't, so there is a 59% chance of a new winner.
The most common year represented in this round was 2017, accounting for 27% of songs.
There is a 9% chance of the winning entry having been a UK #1 hit, this being the only chart peak achieved by two entries in the round.
So, the most likely winner is a British act which peaked at #1 in 2017, hasn't appeared before, and was chosen by a contestant who has yet to win a round. Which narrows the field down to....
...none of them, actually.
Anyway, I'd have scored 0 on the predicta this round. There's no way I'd have placed the song which did win amongst my three possibles. (They finished 2nd, 7th and 10th). But that doesn't necessarily mean we have a shock, it just means I'm no good at the predicta.
Similarly, I wouldn't have predicted either of them bottom two. But the majority of people who commented seemed to think this was a strong round, so last place may be by misfortune rather than poor song selection.
Before the round started, 15 contestants could still win Haven Time Machine 2010s. It was certain this would be whittled down, but how dramatic has that pruning been ?
In my head I like to imagine LastDreamer in the land of Lithuania right now with a suitcase of simcards, a box of chocolates and a wedding ring. It would be a great base for an epic Eurovision fan fiction.
I thought Saint Etienne or Harry Styles would do well, but dont really know, same at the bottom, I'll stick my neck out and say there's no runaway winner or runaway at the bottom, I think it could be quite close at either end?