What hasn't been mentioned yet is whether any of these people is capable of generating a block of public votes on non-sporting or semi-sporting grounds, just like Giggs did when he won completely undeservedly. (I agree with earlier sentiments, no British footballer has deserved this award for many a long year).
Are there lots of darts fans out there, riled by the lack of recognition of Taylor, who are running an internet campaign that will sweep him to victory ?
Personally, I'd give it to McCoy, as a sort of "lifetime achievement" award. He won two major trophies this year (Champion jockey and the Grand National), and has been the unrivalled master in his field for so long. And you need an enormous amount of skill, athleticism and courage to be Champion jockey.
Cavendish became the most successful British road cyclist of all-time during 2010, but the intricacies and foreigness of les grandes tours eludes most British people, as TWP demonstrated above.
By becoming world #1 (and playing a significant role in a team sport), Westwood is in with a shout. However, he doesn't have the profile of Monty or Faldo for example, and I think British audiences are beginning to take the magnitude of a Ryder Cup win for granted.
Of the outsiders, Swann still has a chance, if he takes a lot of wickets in the next Test. We know people have very short memories, and England taking a 1-0 Ashes lead could be enough for a late surge.
Finally, on pure personality terms, you cannot beat the adorable Jessica Ennis. If her interview comes up early on the programme, she may edge home by picking up the votes of all the neutrals / undecideds watching on tv.