vastar iner
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Post by vastar iner on Jul 9, 2011 23:13:14 GMT 1
The Germans are out though which is always good to see! No it bloody isn't. The way to the final was gaping...and we lose because of the toss of a freaking coin...
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Post by o on Jul 10, 2011 10:09:47 GMT 1
We dont lose because of that, we lose because they scored more penalties than us, plus they played better than us. And quoting your own stats, 40% of teams going 2nd win penalty shootouts, so why couldn't we add to that total, because we're england?
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vastar iner
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Post by vastar iner on Jul 10, 2011 11:42:35 GMT 1
Well, look at the last few World Cups. 4 out of the 11 teams going second won their shootout - and 2 of those were the hosts, and 1 had a 10 man opposition for most of the game. Going first is a GIGANTIC advantage. Had England gone first we would have won.
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Post by ROBERTLEE on Jul 10, 2011 16:17:20 GMT 1
Very disappinting for England.
It's hard to understand why national foorball teams seem to mostly lose whenever theer's a penalty shootout.
In all honesty, though they were outplayed during the match - although it's goals that count.
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Post by o on Jul 10, 2011 16:30:30 GMT 1
Well, look at the last few World Cups. 4 out of the 11 teams going second won their shootout - and 2 of those were the hosts, and 1 had a 10 man opposition for most of the game. Going first is a GIGANTIC advantage. Had England gone first we would have won. Personally, I think that's rubbish, and also pure speculation. Back onto the topic, I thought Kelly Smith was very disappointing, apart from her penalty. I'd quite like to see Brazil beat the US this afternoon, just so that we will have a new winning team of the World Cup.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on Jul 10, 2011 17:08:43 GMT 1
Feel quite glad i missed England game last night, although the report i read backs up the opinion here that France were the better side so wouldn't have been as disappointed as i might have been had i seen it. May be a lot of changes coming too as this may have been some players last WC, Kelly Smith, Rachel Yankey, certainly Faye White, and also a suggestion that Hope Powell may now stand down as well. She's been doing the job so long her position is almost taken for granted. Are there any suitable alternatives?
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Post by o on Jul 10, 2011 19:37:51 GMT 1
No idea on the England manager front, I'd say Yankey and Smith were disappointing, so maybe new blood is needed, the women cant blame burnout as well, as they're in the middle of a season and on a break, so the excuse will be match fitness and sharpness rather than the fact that we just weren't good enough, and only really performed against the Japanese.
Great game today USA v Brazil, some dodgy refereeing again, and I really wanted Brazil to win, sadly they had a poor goalie who seemed to be jumping out of the way on some of the penalties! Let's hope the French can give the US a good game in the semis. Maybe if Brazil hadn't gifted the US a goal in the first two minutes it would have been very different?
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vastar iner
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Post by vastar iner on Jul 10, 2011 20:13:35 GMT 1
Well, look at the last few World Cups. 4 out of the 11 teams going second won their shootout - and 2 of those were the hosts, and 1 had a 10 man opposition for most of the game. Going first is a GIGANTIC advantage. Had England gone first we would have won. Personally, I think that's rubbish, and also pure speculation. It's speculation, but it's backed up by the statistics.
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Post by o on Jul 10, 2011 20:34:59 GMT 1
60/40 is close enough to 50/50 to be irrelevant imo.
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vastar iner
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Post by vastar iner on Jul 10, 2011 20:51:13 GMT 1
Oh look. USA beat Brazil on penalties. And guess which team took the first penalty.
60/40 is in ALL competitions over the last 10 years so skill differences will be greater in earlier stages of competitions. In the latter part of a world cup you're dealing with the best teams at their peak. Far more equal teams. Statistically it should be close to 50/50. Yet statistically the team going second has won 1 time in 15 - including the last 4 women's world cup shootouts - without an artificial advantage like home turf or a depleted opposition. Fact.
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Post by suedehead on Jul 10, 2011 20:54:23 GMT 1
Oh look. USA beat Brazil on penalties. And guess which team took the first penalty. 60/40 is in ALL competitions over the last 10 years so skill differences will be greater in earlier stages of competitions. In the latter part of a world cup you're dealing with the best teams at their peak. Far more equal teams. Statistically it should be close to 50/50. Yet statistically the team going second has won 1 time in 15 - including the last 4 women's world cup shootouts - without an artificial advantage like home turf or a depleted opposition. Fact. A fact but not relevant. If you tossed a coin 100 times and it came up heads 60% of the time that would not be proof that the coin was biased.
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Post by paulgilb on Jul 10, 2011 22:11:44 GMT 1
Results from today:
Sweden 3-1 Australia Brazil 2-2 USA (USA won 5-3 on penalties)
Brazil's Daiane scored an own goal in the 2nd minute and was Brazil's only penalty misser. Both teams scored in extra time, with USA scoring in the 122nd minute.
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vastar iner
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Post by vastar iner on Jul 10, 2011 23:12:41 GMT 1
Oh look. USA beat Brazil on penalties. And guess which team took the first penalty. 60/40 is in ALL competitions over the last 10 years so skill differences will be greater in earlier stages of competitions. In the latter part of a world cup you're dealing with the best teams at their peak. Far more equal teams. Statistically it should be close to 50/50. Yet statistically the team going second has won 1 time in 15 - including the last 4 women's world cup shootouts - without an artificial advantage like home turf or a depleted opposition. Fact. A fact but not relevant. If you tossed a coin 100 times and it came up heads 60% of the time that would not be proof that the coin was biased. Over 2,800 tosses (the number of penalties in the LSE study) you might think there was something wrong though if you got 1,700 heads and 1,100 tails. What would you call given those stats? Certainly in 19 out of the 20 shoot-outs the LSE checked where there was a choice of going first the toss-winning captain took it. A penalty shoot-out is not - should not - be down to sheer chance. Logically you've got teams of abilities so equal that they can't be separated over 120 minutes. Yet at the highest levels the one that starts the shoot-out wins 11 times in 15. That's way above what is statistically expected. And that's not even taking into account 3 of those others coming in special circumstances. Indeed, today the US beat Brazil even though the Americans were a woman short for an hour. But they went first...
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Post by suedehead on Jul 10, 2011 23:47:50 GMT 1
Don't get me wrong, I don't like penalty shoot outs and I can see why going first might be an advantage. I like your suggestion of running it in a similar way to a tennis tie-break.
The higher the sample size, the more the proportion of winners should split roughly 50-50 between the team who went first and the team who went second. However, with a sample size of under 3000 I would still want to look at the full list of matches before deciding whether any conclusions can be drawn.
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Post by Panda on Jul 11, 2011 9:28:59 GMT 1
No idea on the England manager front, I'd say Yankey and Smith were disappointing, so maybe new blood is needed, the women cant blame burnout as well, as they're in the middle of a season and on a break, so the excuse will be match fitness and sharpness rather than the fact that we just weren't good enough, and only really performed against the Japanese. Kelly Smith never looked fit throughout the tournament. Yankey's best days are probably behind her and there may be others who can do the job now. Faye White has done really well to overcome her injury problems but this was surely her last tournament and Sophie Bradley looks like a more than capable replacement at the back. She was fantastic against Japan.
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Post by o on Jul 11, 2011 10:01:09 GMT 1
Very true misterh, what puzzled me in our game was why the fullbacks were subbed? Were they injured as I thought they had been great players, and taking them off and bringing on inferior replacements meant we got attacked more, and then couldn't make the substitutions we wanted to later on
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Post by paulgilb on Jul 14, 2011 14:40:42 GMT 1
Semi-finals:
France 1-3 USA Japan 3-1 Sweden
USA v Japan in the final on Sunday.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on Jul 15, 2011 18:47:03 GMT 1
Interesting that Hope Powell called the players cowardly, asking for takers for the pens three times. One player in response apparently hit back on Twitter saying something like, "you lose as a team", and this was backed up by a couple of her teammates.
Possible disharmony in the camp between manager and the players? Sad if true, but if she does leave it may well be at the right time if that is the case.
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Post by smokeyb on Jul 16, 2011 22:55:00 GMT 1
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vastar iner
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Post by vastar iner on Jul 16, 2011 23:10:54 GMT 1
Interesting that Hope Powell called the players cowardly, asking for takers for the pens three times. One player in response apparently hit back on Twitter saying something like, "you lose as a team", and this was backed up by a couple of her teammates. Yet in penalties less than half the team has to take one.
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