So, looking at a possible 40-team World Cup for 2018.
First, I should stress I'm well aware Michel Platini is using this idea purely as a way of gaining favour with African and Asian countries ahead of a possible challenge for the FIFA presidency. As such, he's stated that most of the 8 extra places would go to Asia and Africa, with Europe only getting one place. This is in spite of there being absolutely no justification in footballing terms for increasing the African or Asian allocation (Ghana are the only African team in the last two World Cups to make it past the group stage, while South Korea are the only Asian team in the last 40 years to reach the quarter-finals and that was on home soil).
I think a 40-team World Cup would be a good chance to shake-up the qualifying procedure for much of the world. For a start, I would absorb the pointless Oceanian qualifying system into Asia's and make New Zealand earn their playoff spot, instead of beating up on the likes of Fiji and Tahiti. I would also combine the CONMEBOL and CONCACAF qualifying sections, just as something different from the long, slow crawl of South American qualifying and to give the CONCACAF teams more of a challenge. There's also a strong case for combining their regional championships and having a 24-team Copa America with teams from across the two continents.
Europe and South America remain the power-bases of world football. For obvious regions, FIFA has been unwilling to give Europe a larger allocation of World Cup places, but the stats don't lie. 15 European teams have reached the knockout stages in the last three World Cups. Europe had all 4 semi-finalists in 2006 and 6 of the last 8, and the top 3 in the last World Cup. South America had a better World Cup in 2010, with all 5 teams reaching the knockout stages but only Uruguay made the semis. Between them, the rest of the world has only managed 4 quarter-finalists in the last 5 World Cups (Ghana, Senegal, USA and South Korea - and the latter 3 were all in 2002, meaning since Cameroon reached the quarters in 1990, there have only been 2 tournaments when a non-European, non-South American team reached the last 8). So the fact is, Europe and South America are streets ahead of the other confederations and therefore, shouldn't be left short when it comes to dishing out the extra places.
So this is how I would allocate the places for a 40-team World Cup:
Hosts: 1 (regardless of confederation, though I would have a rule in place that stated if a tournament was held in more than one country, the extra automatic hosts' spot would be taken out of that continent's allocation)
Europe: 15.5 places (up from 13)
The Americas: 10.5 places (up from a combined 8)
Africa: 6.5 places (up from 5)
Asia & Oceania: 6.5 places (up from a combined 5)
To ensure Africa and Asia don't feel too hard done by, I would get rid of the draws and agreements that have been used for the intercontinental playoffs and say it would always be Europe v Americas and Africa v Asia. This would mean either Africa or Asia/Oceania would be guaranteed 7 places in the World Cup.
These are the formats I came up with for each section:
EUROPE
53 teams
8 groups (5x7, 3x6)
8 group winners and best 7 runners-up qualify
Other runner-up goes into Americas playoff draw
Minimum games to qualify: 10
Maximum: 14
AMERICAS
50 teams
Knockout round: seeds 35-50
7 groups of 6 (34 automatic qualifiers + 8 winners from 1st round)
7 group winners qualify
7 runners-up go into playoffs
Minimum: 10
Maximum: 14
AFRICA
54 teams
Knockout round: seeds 15-54
2nd knockout round: 20 winners from 1st round
4 groups of 6 (14 automatic qualifiers + 10 winners from 2nd round)
4 group winners qualify
4 runners-up go into knockout section: 2 winners qualify, 2 losers playoff against each other with winner going into playoff against team from Asia/Oceania
Minimum: 10
Maximum: 20
ASIA/OCEANIA
57 teams
Knockout round: seeds 20-57
2nd knockout round: seeds 11-19 + 19 winners from 1st round
1st group stage: 6 groups of 4 (10 automatic qualifiers + 14 winners from 2nd round)
Top 2 in each group go through to final round
2 groups of 6
Top 3 in each group qualify
2 runners-up playoff against each other, with winner facing team from Africa
Minimum: 16
Maximum: 24
Using these formats and October's FIFA rankings to determine the seedings, I did a sample draw for each section, using Elo Ratings to determine winners.
This is how the draw played out (for the purposes of this draw, I've assumed all teams that are full members of a confederation would be allowed to enter):
EUROPEGROUP A:
Netherlands
Sweden
Hungary
Norway
Poland
Kazakhstan
Gibraltar
GROUP B:
Spain
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Scotland
Slovakia
Azerbaijan
Estonia
San Marino
GROUP C:
Belgium
Ukraine
Serbia
Iceland
Macedonia
Malta
Faroe Islands
GROUP D:
Switzerland
Greece
Slovenia
Ireland
Belarus
Latvia
Liechtenstein
GROUP E:
Germany
Denmark
Romania
Finland
Bulgaria
Georgia
Andorra
GROUP F:
Italy
France
Armenia
Montenegro
Moldova
Cyprus
GROUP G:
Portugal
Croatia
Turkey
Austria
Northern Ireland
Lithuania
GROUP H:
England
Czech Republic
Wales
Albania
Israel
Luxembourg
AMERICASROUND 1
Curacao v
Martinique Aruba v
Turks & Caicos Islands
Montserrat v
Saint-Martin US Virgin Islands v
Sint Maarten Cayman Islands v
French Guiana Dominica v
Anguilla
Bahamas v
British Virgin Islands
Barbados v
GuadeloupeROUND 2
GROUP A:
Ecuador
Paraguay
Haiti
Guatemala
Puerto Rico
Guadeloupe
GROUP B:
Argentina
Peru
El Salvador
Antigua & Barbuda
St. Lucia
French Guiana
GROUP C:
Brazil
Panama
Trinidad & Tobago
Canada
Bermuda
Saint-Martin
GROUP D:
Colombia
Mexico
Cuba
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
St. Kitts & Nevis
Aruba
GROUP E:
Uruguay
Costa Rica
Jamaica
Suriname
Nicaragua
Sint Maarten
GROUP F:
United States
Honduras
Bolivia
Dominica
Guyana
Martinique
GROUP G:
Chile
Venezuela
Dominican Republic
Grenada
Belize
Bahamas
(an alternative format for the Americas could feature 2 groups of 9 or 10 to reduce the number of potentially one-sided games)
AFRICAROUND 1
Zimbabwe v
Tanzania
Uganda v
Comoros
Niger v
Sudan Kenya v
Malawi
DR Congo v
Somalia
Equatorial Guinea v
Swaziland
Guinea v
Mauritius
Togo v
Lesotho
Mozambique v
Madagascar
Botswana v
South Sudan
Burundi v
Rwanda Benin v
Namibia
Morocco v
Gambia
Sierra Leone v
Guinea-Bissau
Central African Republic v
Chad
Gabon v
Sao Tome & Principe
Angola v
Seychelles
Liberia v
Mauritania
Ethiopia v
Eritrea
Congo v
Djibouti
ROUND 2
Zimbabwe v
Uganda Sudan v
Kenya DR Congo v
Equatorial Guinea
Guinea v
Togo
Mozambique v
Botswana
Rwanda v
Benin Morocco v
Sierra Leone
Central African Republic v
Gabon Angola v
Liberia
Ethiopia v
Congo
ROUND 3
GROUP A:
Nigeria
Cape Verde
Burkina Faso
Guinea
Gabon
Kenya
GROUP B:
Ivory Coast
Egypt
Libya
Morocco
Angola
Benin
GROUP C:
Algeria
Mali
South Africa
Senegal
DR Congo
Ethiopia
GROUP D:
Ghana
Tunisia
Cameroon
Zambia
Uganda
Mozambique
ASIA/OCEANIAROUND 1
Tahiti v
Guam
Malaysia v
Taiwan
Nepal v
Samoa
Vietnam v
Cambodia
Bangladesh v
Tonga
Maldives v
Papua New Guinea
India v
Vanuatu
Hong Kong v
Pakistan
Kyrgyzstan v
Fiji Palestine v
Laos
Burma v
Cook Islands
Thailand v
Mongolia
Syria v
Solomon Islands
Afghanistan v
Bhutan
Sri Lanka v
Brunei
New Caledonia v
East Timor
Indonesia v
Macau
Philippines v
American Samoa
Singapore v
Yemen
ROUND 2
Kuwait v
New Caledonia
Tajikistan v
Palestine Bangladesh v
Tahiti Nepal v
North Korea Iraq v
Maldives
Fiji v
Philippines
India v
Singapore Burma v
Turkmenistan Lebanon v
Thailand
Qatar v
Vietnam
Malaysia v
Indonesia Saudi Arabia v
Afghanistan
Hong Kong v
Syria Bahrain v
Sri Lanka
ROUND 3
GROUP A:
Jordan Oman Lebanon
Singapore
GROUP B:
Australia Iraq
North Korea Fiji
GROUP C:
Uzbekistan Saudi Arabia Turkmenistan
Indonesia
GROUP D:
Iran China Bahrain
Palestine
GROUP E:
Japan New Zealand Kuwait
Syria
GROUP F:
South Korea
United Arab Emirates Qatar
Tahiti
ROUND 4
GROUP A:
Jordan
Oman
Australia
North Korea
Uzbekistan
Saudi Arabia
GROUP B:
Iran
China
Japan
New Zealand
South Korea
United Arab Emirates
From those draws, these would be the automatic qualifiers, using the Elo Ratings to determine the finishing positions:
EUROPE
Netherlands
Spain
Belgium
Switzerland
Germany
Italy
Portugal
England
Sweden
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Ukraine
Greece
France
Croatia
Czech Republic
AMERICAS
Ecuador
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Uruguay
United States
Chile
AFRICA
Nigeria
Ivory Coast
South Africa
Ghana
ASIA/OCEANIA
Australia
Uzbekistan
North Korea
Japan
Iran
South Korea
PLAYOFFS (FIFA rankings used to determine seeds, Elo Ratings used to determine winners)
Costa Rica v
Venezuela
Mexico v
Panama
Denmark v
Paraguay
Honduras v
Peru Egypt v
Burkina Faso
Algeria v
Cameroon Algeria v
Burkina Faso
Jordan v
United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates v
Algeria
For the finals, I would have 5 seeded pots, rather than having the lower pots split geographically, though I would limit the number of teams from each confederation in each group (3 from Europe, 2 from the Americas, 1 each from Africa and Asia).
Using the FIFA rankings, these would be the pots (with Russia seeded as hosts, and Brazil also in the top pot due to their current rankings disadvantage):
POT 1: Russia, Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay
POT 2: Switzerland, Netherlands, Italy, England, Chile, Portugal, USA, Greece
POT 3: Bosnia, Ivory Coast, Croatia, Ukraine, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico
POT 4: Sweden, Denmark, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Nigeria, Peru, Japan, Iran
POT 5: Egypt, Uzbekistan, South Korea, Australia, Cameroon, South Africa, UAE, North Korea
Which resulted in the following draw:
GROUP A:
Russia
United States
Ghana
Denmark
South Korea
GROUP B:
Colombia
Portugal
France
Peru
Uzbekistan
GROUP C:
Spain
Switzerland
Mexico
Sweden
United Arab Emirates
GROUP D:
Germany
Chile
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Egypt
GROUP E:
Belgium
Netherlands
Ivory Coast
Costa Rica
Australia
GROUP F:
Brazil
England
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Iran
Cameroon
GROUP G:
Argentina
Italy
Ecuador
Nigeria
North Korea
GROUP H:
Uruguay
Greece
Croatia
Japan
South Africa
As each round of fixtures would feature one team not playing, I would ensure bottom seeds were placed in the position in the group that would see them miss the final round of fixtures, just like in the rugby union World Cup.
Might as well play out the rest of the tournament with the Elo Ratings...
ROUND 2:
United States v
Portugal Spain v
Chile
Netherlands v
England
Argentina v
Greece
Colombia v
Russia
Germany v
Switzerland
Brazil v
Belgium
Uruguay v
Italy
QUARTER-FINALS:
Portugal v
Spain Netherlands v
Argentina Colombia v
Germany Brazil v
Uruguay
SEMI-FINALS:
Spain v
Argentina
Germany v
BrazilFINAL:
Spain v
Brazil