rewardman
Member
*rock n roll juvenile*
Posts: 31,408
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Post by rewardman on Apr 4, 2014 14:39:45 GMT 1
Last year's winner was 66/1... I did not know that.
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Post by Razzle Dazzle on Apr 4, 2014 16:09:23 GMT 1
Remember the starting price is always lower than the price you can get the day before or even the morning of the race
Since 2009 we have had a 100-1, 66-1 and a 33-1 winner. I know for a fact the year neptune collonge won at 33-1the morning of the grand national you could get 50-1 because I put a few quid on for my dad
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 16:35:19 GMT 1
Many of the Grand National prices are a bit of a rip-off, which allows the bookies to make huge profits, especially if an outsider wins, as has happened in recent years.
Usually a bookie's over-round (the combined probability of winning for every horse in the race, based on the odds being offered) will be about 120% (the extra 20% is how the bookies make their profit).. For the Grand National, it will be closer to 200%, suggesting many of the horses' odds are way shorter than they should be.
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Post by Shireblogger on Apr 4, 2014 17:00:47 GMT 1
Of course, the bookies can get away with shortening the odds on the National, because it attracts so many once-a-year punters who know nothing, and chose horses based on sentimental reasons, such as liking the owners' colours, backing a grey horse, or trying to second guess the emotional winner's story.
For every other race in the year, if punters thought they were getting a bad deal, the bookies would soon go out of business.
It's just like fruit machines. If the fruit machine is located somewhere where its players are regulars (e.g. in a pub), then it will pay out far more frequently than a fruit machine which doesn't rely on repeat custom, such as those located at Las Vegas Airport.
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Post by Razzle Dazzle on Apr 4, 2014 17:24:43 GMT 1
I noticed mr moonshine (a 200/1 shot last year shortened to 66/1) was pulled up and is 10lb heavier this year and has never won at any kind of distance, but is 28/1 and will probably start 18/1, just because it has connections to last years winner
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Post by Razzle Dazzle on Apr 4, 2014 17:48:28 GMT 1
got my horses on for the grand national tomorrow... big shu 28-1, balthazar king 25-1, monbeg dude 20-1 and mountainous 40-1
the first 3 I put on earlier this week (ironically got Balthazar king in the sweepstake aswel), then after reading mountainous loves long races and won the welsh grand national, 40-1 e/w sounds pretty good value
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Sam
Member
[k4r]
Posts: 413
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Post by Sam on Apr 4, 2014 17:48:33 GMT 1
1 and 18 please
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Post by Razzle Dazzle on Apr 4, 2014 17:51:26 GMT 1
1012. TEAFORTHREE Odds: 9/1F 3rd in 2013 2523. MOUNTAINOUS Odds: 40/1
lucky bugger, the favourite and the welsh national winner/long distance specialist
probably the best chance of a winner and the best outside shot
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Post by raliverpool on Apr 4, 2014 18:35:19 GMT 1
31 & 38 Please
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Post by coolchristie2 on Apr 4, 2014 18:54:24 GMT 1
29 and 34 thank you
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:09:51 GMT 1
1240. SWING BILL Odds: 100/1 6th in 2013 10th in 2012 3726. CHANCE DU ROY Odds: 33/1
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:13:38 GMT 1
1117. LION NA BEARNAI Odds: 40/1 3815. BATTLE GROUP Odds: 50/1
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:16:09 GMT 1
2320. BIG SHU Odds: 25/1 246. QUITO DE LA ROQUE Odds: 40/1
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:18:45 GMT 1
18. WALKON Odds: 50/1 182. LONG RUN Odds: 14/1
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:22:15 GMT 1
3125. VINTAGE STAR Odds: 66/1 38's gone so you'll get whatever's left at the end.
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:23:57 GMT 1
2930. GOLAN WAY Odds: 100/1 3419. MONBEG DUDE Odds: 14/1
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:26:26 GMT 1
38's gone so you'll get whatever's left at the end. And that is... 3533. THE PACKAGE Odds: 20/1 unseated in 2010
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:55:13 GMT 1
Full list in race number order: 1. TIDAL BAY (greendemon) 20/1 2. LONG RUN (Sam) 12/1 3. HUNT BALL (Andy) 80/1 4. TRIOLO D'ALENE (Manic) 22/1 5. ROCKY CREEK (Martin) 16/1 6. QUITO DE LA ROQUE (Robin) 40/1 7. COLBERT STATION (daz) 50/1 8. WALKON (Sam) 40/1 9. BALTHAZAR KING (daz) 18/1 10. WAYWARD PRINCE (paulgilb) 80/1 11. MR MOONSHINE (misterhamster) 33/1 12. TEAFORTHREE (smiffj) 10/1 13. ACROSS THE BAY (Martin) 66/1 14. DOUBLE SEVEN (Big Dan) 16/1 15. BATTLE GROUP (wonderwall) 50/1 16. BUCKERS BRIDGE (Shireblogger) 100/1 17. LION NA BEARNAI (wonderwall) 40/1 18. PRINCE DU BEAUCHENE (Paddy) 25/1 19. MONBEG DUDE (coolchristie) 14/1 20. BIG SHU (Robin) 25/1 21. BURTON PORT (roos1ter) 18/1 22. OUR FATHER (paulgilb) 66/1 23. MOUNTAINOUS (smiffj) 50/1 24. THE RAINBOW HUNTER (roos1ter) 33/1 25. VINTAGE STAR (raliverpool) 66/1 26. CHANCE DU ROY (rubcale) 33/1 27. HAWKES POINT (Big Dan) 50/1 28. KRUZHLININ (Paddy) 125/1 29. PINEAU DE RE (misterhamster) 28/1 30. GOLAN WAY (coolchristie) 100/1 31. TWIRLING MAGNET (Andy) 100/1 32. VESPER BELL (greendemon) 80/1 33. THE PACKAGE (raliverpool) 20/1 34. RAZ DE MAREE (rewardman) 66/1 35. ROSE OF THE MOON (rewardman) 80/1 36. SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (Shireblogger) 40/1 37. ALVARADO (Manic) 40/1 38. LAST TIME D'ALBAIN (smokeyb) 80/1 39. ONE IN A MILAN (smokeyb) 100/1 40. SWING BILL (rubcale) 100/1
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Post by Panda on Apr 4, 2014 19:57:33 GMT 1
got my horses on for the grand national tomorrow... big shu 28-1, balthazar king 25-1, monbeg dude 20-1 and mountainous 40-1 the first 3 I put on earlier this week (ironically got Balthazar king in the sweepstake aswel), then after reading mountainous loves long races and won the welsh grand national, 40-1 e/w sounds pretty good value I've got Monbeg Dude and Mountainous as well but I think the latter will need rain and softer ground to make an impact. Got Teaforthree as well even though I don't like backing favourites, but I had him last year when he came 3rd and he's 2lbs better off this time so...
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Paddy
Member
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Best newcomer 2009
Posts: 19,328
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Post by Paddy on Apr 5, 2014 16:30:43 GMT 1
MrH wins this years sweepstake
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