Thor
Member
Why can't this moment last forever more?
Posts: 22,606
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Post by Thor on Nov 23, 2007 11:23:46 GMT 1
Moldova sneaking into pot 4 is an interesting one. They went unbeaten in their last 4 Euro games, winning 3 of them... They're up to 53 in the FIFA rankings! Not just sneaking in but being quite high up in it. I don't like Moldova I'd sooner they were crap again
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Post by Panda on Nov 23, 2007 11:27:21 GMT 1
Just out of curiosity, here's what the pots would look like based on the Elo rankings:
POT ONE Italy, France, Spain, Holland, Czech Republic, Germany, England, Romania, Croatia
POT TWO Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Russia, Bulgaria, Poland
POT THREE Norway, Rep of Ireland, Scotland, Serbia, Israel, Ukraine, Finland, Slovakia, Belgium
POT FOUR Wales, Montenegro, Austria, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Belarus, Macedonia, Bosnia
POT FIVE Slovenia, Georgia, Cyprus, Moldova, Latvia, Albania, Armenia, Iceland, Estonia
POT SIX Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Malta, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Andorra, Luxembourg, San Marino
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Thor
Member
Why can't this moment last forever more?
Posts: 22,606
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Post by Thor on Nov 23, 2007 11:29:05 GMT 1
I do think the FIFA Rankings have done Austria and Switzerland a great disservice. Plus I think it would have been fairer to Montenegro to have a wildcard draw and put them into the pot that came out
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Post by Panda on Nov 23, 2007 11:38:49 GMT 1
The Elo rankings include non-FIFA members as well.
Their rankings would put Northern Cyprus into pot 5 ahead of Estonia.
For CONCACAF, Guadeloupe would be one of the seeded teams, with Martinique also getting a bye.
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Post by Panda on Nov 23, 2007 11:41:31 GMT 1
There's also the Roon Ba rankings. Theirs go all the way down to 243! (Elo only has 229!) Their pots would look like this. (Just for a laugh, I've included the non-FIFA teams as well) POT ONE Czech Republic, Italy, France, Romania, Spain, Croatia, Germany, England, Holland POT TWO Greece, Bulgaria, Portugal, Turkey, Rep of Ireland, Norway, Russia, Poland, Scotland POT THREE Serbia, Sweden, Israel, Denmark, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Wales, Finland POT FOUR Lithuania, Belgium, Northern Ireland, Belarus, Moldova, Macedonia, Austria, Georgia, Slovenia POT FIVE Hungary, Cyprus, Montenegro, Bosnia, Latvia, Albania, Estonia, Armenia, Kazakhstan POT SIX Kosovo, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Faroe Islands, Northern Cyprus, Andorra POT SEVEN San Marino, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Jersey, Isle Of Man, Aland, Vatican , Greenland, Monaco POT EIGHT Alderney, Sark
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Post by Panda on Nov 24, 2007 13:37:58 GMT 1
Here's another cruel twist for England. Had we not played that friendly against Austria last week, we would've stayed above Greece in the rankings and been seeded for the World Cup draw...
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Post by paulgilb on Nov 24, 2007 18:26:27 GMT 1
Here's another cruel twist for England. Had we not played that friendly against Austria last week, we would've stayed above Greece in the rankings and been seeded for the World Cup draw... Obviously a rather strange ranking system - not only does it take into account friendlies (which IMO it should not do due to the unofficial nature of them e.g. allowing 11 subs in a match), but it at times appears better not to play than to play and win... Of course, there is no "perfect" ranking system. And another question: if one of the teams dropped out / were excluded from the tournament for whatever reason, then which team would replace them? Would it be the 'best of the rest' overall (in this case Bulgaria), or would it be the 3rd-placed team from the group in question (in which case it would be good if we could persuade either Croatia or Russia to withdraw)?
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Post by Panda on Nov 24, 2007 21:00:24 GMT 1
If Euro '92 was used as a precedent, I would assume it would be the 3rd-placed team from the withdrawn team's group.
Denmark were runners-up to Yugoslavia in the '92 qualifying and got in when Yugoslavia were forced to withdraw due to the war. Denmark did have the best record of the runners-up as well but they got in simply because they were in the same group. Italy were also on standby to replace the CIS, who'd qualified ahead of them (as the USSR) due to the tense political situation at the time.
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Post by Panda on Dec 2, 2007 14:00:59 GMT 1
So the draw:
GROUP A Switzerland Czech Republic Portugal Turkey
GROUP B Austria Croatia Germany Poland
GROUP C Holland Italy Romania France
GROUP D Greece Sweden Spain Russia
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Post by greendemon on Dec 2, 2007 14:51:26 GMT 1
can't england qualify by demanding that turkey be excluded, on the (reasonable!) grounds that they're not actually in europe?
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Post by Panda on Dec 2, 2007 14:56:07 GMT 1
Maybe we can get in if that campaign by the Austrian fans for their team to withdraw succeeds.
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frag
Member
*Paranoid Android*
I have no idea what you're talking about, so here's a bunny with a pancake on its head.
Posts: 25,116
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Post by frag on Dec 2, 2007 16:54:04 GMT 1
We'd probably still go out in the group stages...
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Post by paulgilb on Dec 2, 2007 22:29:54 GMT 1
An interesting draw there:
Switzerland v Turkey - could be interesting after the fireworks of the 2006 WC playoffs Germany v Poland - a repeat of a 2006 WC encounter Germany v Austria - neighbouring countries, same language... France v Italy - repeat of 2006 WC final & Euro 2008 qualifiers Spain, Greece, Russia - all in the same group in Euro 2004
And Group C is a real group-of-death! This has come about for 2 reasons:
1. UEFA giving seedings to Switzerland, Austria and Greece meaning that the top-ranked team (in this case Netherlands) would be more likely to get a tough draw.
2. France were placed in the bottom pot for the draw due to the fact that the seedings were based only on qualifiers for 2006 WC (where France drew quite a few games) and qualifiers for Euro 2008 (where France lost twice to Scotland), ignoring the 2006 WC finals.
And the odds from Ladbrokes:
Germany 4/1 Italy 7/1 Spain 7/1 France 8/1 Portugal 8/1 Holland 10/1 Croatia 12/1 Czech Republic 14/1 Switzerland 20/1 Sweden 22/1 Greece 25/1 Turkey 25/1 Russia 28/1 Poland 33/1 Romania 40/1 Austria 66/1
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