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Post by paulgilb on Jun 29, 2018 22:53:10 GMT 1
QFs and beyond based on current Elo ratings:
France v Portugal Brazil v Belgium England v Switzerland Spain v Croatia
SFs:
France v Brazil Spain v England
Third-place Match:
France v England
Third-place: France
Final:
Brazil v Spain
Winner: Brazil
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 29, 2018 0:16:52 GMT 1
Random fact: each of Poland's last 3 appearances in the World Cup (2002, 2006, 2018) has seen them lose their first two games before winning their 3rd.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 27, 2018 23:41:55 GMT 1
Permutations for tomorrow's matches:
Group G
Belgium and England are both through, Tunisia and Panama are out. Belgium and England have identical records, so the winner will top the group, and a draw will see it go down to fair play and possibly drawing of lots.
Group H
Poland are out.
Senegal are definitely through if they avoid defeat to Colombia. Even if they lose, they can still go through if Japan lose to Poland by a bigger margin (or the margins are the same and Senegal's game is higher scoring). They will top the group with a win unless Japan win by a bigger margin. They will also top the group with a draw if Japan lose or manage a lower-scoring draw.
Japan are through if they lose and Senegal do not win. Even if Japan and Senegal both lose, Japan could still go through if their defeat is by a smaller margin. To top the group, Japan need to win and hope Senegal do not win by a greater margin, or obtain a higher-scoring draw than Senegal.
Colombia are through if they win, or if they draw and Poland win. They will top the group if they win and Japan do not.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 27, 2018 23:22:45 GMT 1
So far, three of the qualifiers have lost a group match 3-0. 3-0 isn't the worst defeat suffered by a team that got through the knockout stages - in 2006, Ukraine lost their first game 4-0 to Spain but still progressed behind them (and actually got further than them, reaching the QFs). Also interesting to note is that two of the qualifiers (Argentina and Mexico) have a negative goal difference. In fact, Iran (who were eliminated) actually had a better group stage record than Argentina, and were in a tougher group than Argentina were. This is also the first time that (West) Germany have been knocked out of the World Cup before England have since 1966 (when England did not get knocked out at all). It has happened more recently in the Euros, in 2004.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 26, 2018 23:16:35 GMT 1
Permutations for tomorrow's matches:
Group E
Costa Rica are eliminated.
Serbia will go through if they beat Brazil. A draw will be enough for Serbia if Costa Rica beat Switzerland by 2+ goals. Serbia will top the group if they win and Switzerland don't.
Switzerland can go out if they lose and Brazil fail to win (and even then they may still through depending on goal difference). They will top the group if they win and Brazil either fail to win or win by a smaller margin (may come down to goals scored).
Brazil will also go through if they avoid defeat, and can still go through if they lose and Costa Rica beat Switzerland. They will top the group with a victory unless Switzerland win by a bigger margin; or if they draw and Switzerland lose; or both games are draws.
Group F
Mexico will top the group if they avoid defeat to Sweden. However, if Sweden beat them, then it will come down to goal difference, and if Germany also beat South Korea, Mexico could go out.
Germany will go through if they win unless both they and Sweden win 1-0 (in which case lots will be drawn), or they draw and Mexico win or Mexico v Sweden is a lower-scoring draw. If Mexico win, Germany could still go through even if they lose to South Korea by only 1 goal.
Sweden are through if they win and Germany don't, or they draw and Germany lose. If Sweden and Germany manage the same result, then it will come down to goal difference.
South Korea can still go through if they beat Germany and Mexico beat Sweden, unless both matches are decided by a single goal (in which case it comes down to goals scored and possibly drawing of lots).
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 25, 2018 23:01:05 GMT 1
Permutations for tomorrow's matches:
Group C
France are definitely through, Peru are definitely out. For Australia to go through, they will need to beat Peru and hope Denmark lose to France, with one of those matches being decided by more than 1 goal (if both are 1 goal victories, it will come down to goals scored).
If Denmark win, they will top the group, otherwise France will.
Group D
Croatia are definitely through and will top the group unless they lose to Iceland and Nigeria beat Argentina, with the combined margin being at least 5 goals.
Nigeria need to avoid defeat to Argentina, and a draw may not be enough if Iceland win by at least 2 goals.
Argentina need to win to stand any chance, and even that may not be enough if Iceland also win by the same or larger margin.
Iceland will need to win and hope Nigeria do not win, with goal difference also being favourable.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 24, 2018 18:42:55 GMT 1
Permutations for tomorrow's matches:
Group A
Russia and Uruguay are guaranteed to finish as the top 2. Russia will top the group if they avoid defeat to Uruguay.
Group B
Morocco are eliminated.
Iran will go through if they beat Portugal. A draw will be enough for Iran if Morocco beat Spain by 2+ goals. Iran will top the group if they win and Spain don't.
Spain can go out if they lose and Portugal fail to win (and even then they may still through depending on goal difference). They will top the group if they win and Portugal either fail to win or win by a smaller margin. They could also top the group if both games are draws and theirs is higher scoring.
Portugal will also go through if they avoid defeat, and can still go through if they lose and Morocco beat Spain by a bigger margin. They will top the group with a victory unless Spain win by at least the same margin; or if they draw and Spain lose; or both games are draws and Portugal's is higher-scoring.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 23, 2018 10:46:40 GMT 1
Slightly ironic that Serbia (who refuse to recognise Kosovo's independence) lose to 2 goals scored by players of Kosovar descent.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 21, 2018 23:09:16 GMT 1
By my calculations Argentina will definitely have to beat Nigeria to stand a chance - if Nigeria v Iceland is not a draw, Argentina will have to win to finish ahead of the winners of that match, and if Nigeria v Iceland is a draw (which would incidentally guarantee Croatia top of the group), then Nigeria would have a better GD than Argentina.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 18, 2018 23:50:27 GMT 1
2006 1-0 vs Paraguay 2018 2-1 vs Tunisia In a rather cruel coincidence, both of these games saw the losing team's goalkeeper substituted due to injury 5 minutes after conceding an early goal.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 17, 2018 11:49:58 GMT 1
This is the second successive World Cup in which the first goal scored for Croatia has been an own goal.
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Post by paulgilb on Jun 15, 2018 22:46:53 GMT 1
Iran are only the second team to win a World Cup match without any of their players scoring a goal in that match. The other such team were England in 2006 against Paraguay.
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Post by paulgilb on May 24, 2018 22:43:10 GMT 1
#317 onwards please!
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Post by paulgilb on Apr 14, 2018 23:02:07 GMT 1
Curiously, the last time the Grand National was held on 14 April (2012), there was also a photo finish (with Neptune Collonges winning by a nose). That year was the most recent year to feature an equine fatality (2 in fact) - this is apparently the longest run without such a fatality since the 1960s. Thanks for hosting the sweepstake, Panda , and congratulations Milliways!
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Post by paulgilb on Apr 9, 2018 22:56:02 GMT 1
14 and 35 please.
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Post by paulgilb on Feb 19, 2018 23:39:29 GMT 1
Rob Davis is another good (albeit slightly different as he didn't originally record the songs he wrote) example - his hits with Mud were mostly penned by Nicky Chinn & Mike Chapman, but then he did write some successful hits later e.g. Can't Get You Out Of My Head.
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Post by paulgilb on Feb 17, 2018 23:45:24 GMT 1
Unless I am mistaken, I believe she is the first Brit to win more than 1 Winter Olympic gold.
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Post by paulgilb on Feb 17, 2018 23:41:48 GMT 1
19 year-old American-born Izzy Atkin won the first ever skiing medal of any sort for Great Britain in the women's Ski Slopestyle. Whilst that is true according to the record books, a mention should be given to Alain Baxter who finished 3rd in 2002 before being stripped of his medal (despite not taking any performance-enhancing substances).
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Post by paulgilb on Dec 19, 2017 0:25:14 GMT 1
Mo Farah is the first (track and field) athlete to win the main award since Kelly Holmes in 2004, and the first male athlete to do so since Jonathan Edwards in 1995.
First time since 2007 (when boxers Joe Calzaghe and Ricky Hatton finished 1st and 3rd) that one sport has provided 2 of the top 3. The previous time that we had 2 athletes in the top 3 was in 2000 (Denise Lewis and Tanni Grey-Thompson).
Jonathan Rea is only the 3rd motorcycle racer to finish in the top 3, following John Surtees (won in 1959) and Barry Sheene (3rd in 1977).
Thanks to Wikipedia for the above!
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Post by paulgilb on Dec 4, 2017 0:16:36 GMT 1
Talking of titles that are not referenced in the song... ...a Beatles no. 1 being a nearly forgotten hit? I would claim yes; because I have never, ever, ever heard this single being played on any mass media. Never. Never on telly, never on radio. Yet probably every other Beatles single has been done to death. Other than the Sheridan ones. Gold (formerly Capital Gold) have definitely played this song frequently (I have not listened to the station for several years, so I don't know if this is still the case).
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