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Post by paulgilb on Aug 25, 2014 11:19:10 GMT 1
Drivers who can still mathematically win the championship
1 Rosberg 220 2 Hamilton 191 3 Ricciardo 156 4 Alonso 121 5 Bottas 110 6 Vettel 98 7 Hulkenberg 70 8 Button 68 9 Massa 40 10 Raikkonen 39 11 Magnussen 37 12 Perez 33
All drivers from Massa downwards would not be able to win the title if it were not for double points at Abu Dhabi.
As for who can realistically win, it only looks like the top 3. In fact, I wouldn't bet against one of the following happening:
1. Ricciardo wins the title as a result of double points at Abu Dhabi.
2. Ricciardo misses out on the title by fewer than the 18 points he lost after his DQ in Australia.
Teams that can still mathematically win the Constructors' Championship:
1 Mercedes 411 2 Red Bull 254 3 Ferrari 160 4 Williams 150 5 McLaren 105 6 Force India 103
McLaren and Force India would both need the double-points rule. If Mercedes do decide to throw away the title, then only Red Bull appear to have any realistic chance.
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Paul
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Post by Paul on Aug 25, 2014 11:32:23 GMT 1
^ As interesting as the stats are (although the mathematical chances of winning the championship ones seem a bit futile because we all know it will be Mercedes winning both), I'd much rather hear your opinions on the racing and the Rosberg/Hamilton incident yesterday. Speaking as someone who is employed as a statistician(!), if we look at things purely in the cold hard facts and often meaningless quirks in the numbers, we lose the passion which is the bedrock of this sport we love. My view anyway
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Post by paulgilb on Aug 25, 2014 23:56:59 GMT 1
Fair point - but I tend to like the more 'quirky' side.
As for the race just gone, the Rosberg-Hamilton is one that we'll almost certainly never know the truth about. Ricciardo's recent successes raise the perennial driver vs car debate e.g. what would have happened if Ricciardo had had an identical car to Vettel last season? This is of course difficult to answer, given that Ricciardo has improved as a driver in the last 12 months, plus this year's cars are totally different to last year's.
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Post by paulgilb on Aug 26, 2014 23:13:37 GMT 1
Some stats/facts (meaningful ones highlighted in bold):
Rosberg's fastest lap was 1.902s faster than anybody else's fastest lap - the biggest such gap since M Schumacher in Spain 1996 (2.218s).
First time since Monaco 2010 (Webber, Vettel, Kubica) that none of the official top 3 drivers had won a championship at the time of the race (although Australia 2014 saw 3 non-champions stand on the podium).
Alexander Rossi became the first practice-only driver to drive for 2 different teams in one season.
First time since Europe 2009 that 2 officially Finnish drivers finished in the top 4. Both this race and that one saw 3 drivers with Finnish nationality finish in consecutive positions.
Lotterer made a surprise debut in a green car at Spa (having raced at Le Mans earlier in the year), outqualified his team-mate, but retired early on. However, it is unlikely that he will win as many titles as Mr Schumacher...
First time since his comeback that Raikkonen has officially been classified 4th (he did cross the line 4th in Germany 2012 but was promoted). He also scored his 1000th point.
First time this year that the fastest race lap was faster than the fastest lap from the previous race at that circuit.
Bottas breaks the record for most points scored by a Williams driver in one season (made totally irrelevant by the points-system changes).
First time since Canada 2008 that none of Hamilton, Button, Vettel, Alonso or Raikkonen were classified in the top 3.
Rosberg and Hamilton have been very close during their time as team-mates: 14 podiums each, 6 wins each, 4 DNFs each. Rosberg leads 10-9 in poles and 391-380 in points.
Lotterer is the first reigning Le Mans champion to start an F1 race since Yannick Dalmas in 1994.
Spa is the first track that Ricciardo has scored more than 25 points at.
All of Ricciardo’s wins have come in races where Vettel outqualified him and was still racing at the finish.
Biggest gap between 1st and 3rd on the grid since Belgium 2001 (2.613). Curiously, on that occasion one team (Williams) locked out the front row but failed to win the race.
Biggest gap between 2nd and 3rd on the grid since San Marino 1988 (2.581s).
First Belgian GP in which Rosberg lost a place on lap 1, and the first race in which he has done so since China.
First time Alonso has been classified lower than 4th in Belgium.
Hamilton’s last 7 Belgian GPs have seen 3 podiums and 4 collision-related DNFs.
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Post by paulgilb on Sept 6, 2014 23:53:21 GMT 1
Grid for Italy:
1 Hamilton 2 Rosberg 3 Bottas 4 Massa 5 Magnussen 6 Button 7 Alonso 8 Vettel 9 Ricciardo 10 Perez 11 Raikkonen 12 Vergne 13 Hulkenberg 14 Sutil 15 Gutierrez 16 Maldonado 17 Grosjean 18 Kobayashi 19 Bianchi 20 Chilton 21 Kvyat (engine penalty) 22 Ericsson (pit-lane start due to yellow flag infringement)
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Post by paulgilb on Sept 10, 2014 23:30:10 GMT 1
A fairly decent race. A few 'opinions' expressed regarding Rosberg going off the track, none of which I believe. As for Alonso and Chilton being the only 2 retirements - well, it was always possible...
Some stats/facts:
First time Hamilton has officially managed 6 wins in one season.
Alonso's first no-score since India 2013, his first DNF since Malaysia 2013, his first mechanical DNF since Malaysia 2010 (where he was still classified), and the first time he has failed to be classified due to a mechanical problem since Hungary 2009 (according to Wikipedia his retirement was due to a fuel system problem unrelated to the wheel incident).
First time since China 2009 (Red Bull, Brawn, McLaren) that one team finished 1-2, another finished 3-4, and another finished 5-6.
Hamilton becomes the first driver since Mark Webber in 2010 to win another race after Silverstone in the same year.
Second consecutive Italian Grand Prix where a German has been booed on the podium.
First time since Belgium 2008 (which also took place on 7 September) that the podium comprised a Brit, a German, and a Brazilian (the 3 most successful countries in F1 history).
13 races into the season and no driver has finished every race (although Button has been classified in every race) - earliest this has happened since 2006.
Lowest ever finishing position for a Sauber (20th after a penalty).
Fastest race lap was over 2 seconds slower than last year's - yet the pole time was only 0.4s off last year's.
First time since Argentina 1980 that the top 6 on the grid were all powered by the same engine (in this case Ford Cosworth).
27th consecutive race won by either Red Bull or Mercedes. This equals the first 27 races (excluding Indy 500s), which were all won by either Alfa Romeo or Ferrari. The previous longest such streak if the Indy 500s are included is 24 races in 2006-08 for Ferrari and McLaren.
Massa has scored more points at Monza than at any other venue. After no points in his first 5 visits, in his last 6 visits he has managed 2 each of 3rd, 4th and 6th.
First mechanical DNF for Ferrari this year – all teams have now had at least 1.
Mercedes managed to lock out the front row, lead every lap, score fastest lap, have their other driver score the next fastest lap, and finish 1-2 in the race. Last team to manage this – Ferrari in France 2008.
7th 2nd-place finish for Rosberg this season – equals Piquet (1987), Prost (1988), Hakkinen (2000), Raikkonen (2003), Barrichello (2004) and Alonso (2006).
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Post by Panda on Sept 11, 2014 21:03:16 GMT 1
Anyone going to be watching Formula E this weekend? It's the new racing series featuring battery-powered cars racing around street circuits. It has a pretty strong driver line-up with quite a few ex-F1 names in there. All the cars for the first season are the same spec but teams will be allowed to develop their own from the second season onwards. A few quirky rules - each driver has two cars per race because the battery units don't have enough power to last the full race. This means each driver will have to pit mid-race and jump into their other car. Another interesting (or stupid) rule is the "fan boost" with fans voting on social media to award their favourite driver a power boost and the top 3 rewarded. The season starts in Beijing on Saturday and finishes in London's Battersea Park in June CALENDAR 13/09: CHINA - Beijing 22/11: MALAYSIA - Putrajaya 13/12: URUGUAY - Punta del Este 10/01: ARGENTINA - Buenos Aires 14/02: TBA 14/03: USA - Miami 04/04: USA - Long Beach 09/05: MONACO - Monte Carlo 30/05: GERMANY - Berlin 27/06: GREAT BRITAIN - London TEAMS & DRIVERS VIRGIN Sam Bird Jaime Alguersuari MAHINDRA Karun Chandhok Bruno Senna DRAGON Oriol Servia Jerome d'Ambrosio E.DAMS RENAULT Nicolas Prost Sebastien Buemi TRULLI Jarno Trulli Michela Cerruti AUDI ABT Lucas di Grassi Daniel Abt VENTURI Nick Heidfeld Stephane Sarrazin ANDRETTI Franck Montagny Charles Pic AMLIN AGURI Takuma Sato Katherine Legge CHINA Ho-Pin Tung Nelson Piquet Jr.
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Post by paulgilb on Sept 11, 2014 22:50:21 GMT 1
Was just about to start a thread on Formula E, which I plan to watch (it is on ITV4). Some other notable points:
1. The whole race weekend action (practice, qualifying, race) takes place on 1 day.
2. The scoring system is the same as F1 but with 3 points for pole, 2 for fastest lap, and each driver drops 1 race from their final tally (the teams championship still uses all points).
Returning to F1, the FIA's latest not-exactly-thought-through-particularly-well rule change has been announced: team radio is now not allowed to include any information relating to the performance of the car or the driver. Teams are still however allowed to give other messages...
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Post by Shireblogger on Sept 12, 2014 7:10:32 GMT 1
Ref. Formula E. I'm going to give it a go. The driver line-up is strong enough to warrant attention for at least a few races.
Ref. the latest rule enforcement announcement - technically it isn't a rule change. I presume that all the teams will spend the next few days working out a series of codes, so they can tell their drivers what to do without sounding like they are. Expect messages like "the rain falls mainly on the plain" to mean "conserve fuel" and "latest news: the 4th horse won at Ascot" to mean "you need to find a few tenths in turn 4".
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Paddy
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Post by Paddy on Sept 12, 2014 9:40:37 GMT 1
I said the same thing about the new f1 rule change yesterday when I saw it. It'll be a case of working out what codes mean for what and penalizing it.
FE is on at 8am tomorrow morning ITV4 I believe. Silly o'clock!
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Post by Maximo Mark on Sept 13, 2014 11:09:13 GMT 1
Enjoyed ForumlaE. Not loads of action generally but with it being street circuits and cars being so similar that was always fairly likely. Still enough to keep me interested though, even without the massive crash at the end. Heidfeld deserved the win! A shame it's over 2 months to the next one, anyone know why there's no October race?
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Post by Shireblogger on Sept 13, 2014 15:05:15 GMT 1
ITV coverage - absolutely atrocious, with dull and uninformed presenters and commentators Background muzak - really annoying Info about what was going on during the race - not good enough (e.g. what happened to the fan boost ?; % of battery life left seemed to be meaningless) Beijing Street Circuit - not as good as Monaco, Singapore, Valencia, Toronto, Pau, several IndyCar circuits Nico Prost - a menace to his fellow racers
But...
The E-cars really slide around, which is good Some exciting overtaking moves, especially by Franck Montagny Colourful cars, a different engine sound If it is truly more environmentally friendly (and I'm struggling to see how it can be if the drivers need a new car every 30 minutes), then it is heading in the right direction
So...
I'm not going to write it off yet
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Post by Maximo Mark on Sept 13, 2014 18:11:11 GMT 1
The commentators and pit-lane reporters are generic, it's the same set for worldwide coverage. I didn't think they were too bad, it's not the easiest when the graphics were often wrong.
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Post by Panda on Sept 13, 2014 18:21:24 GMT 1
I only saw the post-race coverage as I was out running this morning but Prost's defence and attempt to blame Heidfeld for the crash was nothing short of laughable.
Interesting to read SB's comment about the ITV presenters - especially given Jennie Gow's experience of covering F1 (still does for BBC radio) and MotoGP.
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Post by Maximo Mark on Sept 13, 2014 19:55:42 GMT 1
Of the three in the studio, I thought she was easily the best of them.
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Post by paulgilb on Sept 13, 2014 22:58:18 GMT 1
Well that was interesting!
Good points:
Cars that can actually get close together Franck Montagny Heidfeld going for the win rather than settling for 2nd No adverts during the race Fanboost being virtually unnoticeable A dramatic finish
Bad points:
Graphics that were out-of-date (i.e. showing positions from one lap earlier) or inaccurate (e.g. battery percentage used) Rubbish punditry - I'm sure I heard one of the pundits claim that this was the first Prost pole since 1963, and also that Nelson Piquet Jr used to be a 1F driver (although to be fair he was pointing the wrong way after *that* Singapore crash) Not much of qualifying shown - especially given its importance as it is a spec series on a street circuit
As for the "Formula EJ" - surely a certain Irishman would have something to say about this description?
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Post by paulgilb on Sept 20, 2014 23:21:43 GMT 1
Grid for Singapore:
1 Hamilton 2 Rosberg 3 Ricciardo 4 Vettel 5 Alonso 6 Massa 7 Raikkonen 8 Bottas 9 Magnussen 10 Kvyat 11 Button 12 Vergne 13 Hulkenberg 14 Gutierrez 15 Perez 16 Grosjean 17 Sutil 18 Maldonado 19 Bianchi 20 Kobayashi 21 Chilton 22 Ericsson The top 9 in Q3 were separated by just 0.569s, with Hamilton and Rosberg separated by 0.007s and Vettel and Alonso by 0.005s. What makes the above even more incredible is that this is one of the longest circuits on the calendar.
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Post by paulgilb on Sept 25, 2014 23:34:32 GMT 1
A reasonable race - shame about the Mercedes battle being over before it started (especially given how close they were in qualifying).
Some stats/facts:
Closest battle for pole since Germany 2010 (Vettel pipped Alonso by 0.002s).
Both Alonso and Vettel have finished in the top 5 in every Singapore GP (Alonso always in the top 4).
Vettel has now scored more points than M Schumacher*.
All Singapore GPs have been won by a driver who was a World Champion (not necessarily the reigning one) at the time of the race.
Only 3 drivers have won at Singapore but 5 different constructors have. Vettel (who more Singapore wins than either Hamilton or Alonso) is the only one to have taken all his Singapore wins with the same team.
Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton have won exactly 100 races between them.
First time since 2010 (5 drivers) that 3 drivers had a DNS in one season.
First time since Jarno Trulli in Malaysia 1999 that a car retired on the warm-up lap.
Rosberg has had more retirements than Hamilton since Hamilton joined Mercedes.
In each of the last 6 races, the Red Bull who has started behind his team-mate has finished ahead.
Rosberg has led more laps than Hamilton in 2014 but Hamilton has led a greater distance (thanks to Rosberg leading the whole of the Monaco GP).
In his last 6 Singapore visits, Hamilton has managed 2 DNFs, 2 5th places, and 2 wins.
First race since China in which Rosberg hasn’t led a lap. Curiously, the only 3 races this season which Rosberg hasn’t led have been the 3 east Asian races.
Hamilton now has 241 points – more than he has scored in any previous whole season.
Rosberg would be 3 points ahead of Hamilton under the previous 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 system. Curiously, under that system, Perez and Raikkonen (currently tied on 45 points) would be tied on 14 points.
First race since Korea 2012 in which Button has not been classified. His 36-race streak is second only to Heidfeld’s 41 in 2007-09.
First time Vettel has been outqualified by his team-mate at Singapore. Ricciardo has never been outqualified by a team-mate at Singapore, so something had to give.
Hamilton ties Fangio for most wins with Mercedes (8).
120 points for Vettel at the Singapore GP – the joint most for any driver at one event (along with Alonso at the Spanish GP)*.
Ricciardo’s DQ from 2nd in Australia seems to have made him averse to finishing 2nd – since then he has finished 1st 3 times and 3rd 4 times, but never 2nd.
26th 4th-place finish for Alonso – equals Gerhard Berger’s record.
As Vettel cannot mathematically claim the title until Abu Dhabi (barring some mass exclusion of other drivers), he will keep alive his record of always having an even number of titles to his name upon arriving at Abu Dhabi.
* = skewed by the points-system changes.
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Post by paulgilb on Oct 4, 2014 22:46:36 GMT 1
Grid for Japan: 1 Rosberg 2 Hamilton 3 Bottas 4 Massa 5 Alonso 6 Ricciardo 7 Magnussen 8 Button 9 Vettel 10 Raikkonen 11 Perez 12 Kvyat 13 Hulkenberg 14 Sutil 15 Gutierrez 16 Grosjean 17 Ericsson 18 Bianchi 19 Kobayashi 20 Chilton 21 Vergne (engine change) 22 Maldonado (engine change) Maldonado qualified 17th so will have to serve the remaining 5 places of his 10-place penalty in the next race. However, the FIA website lists Vergne (who qualified 11th) in 20th, implying that his penalty has been applied first (even though Maldonado's engine change was confirmed first). If Vergne starts 20th, Maldonado may only have 4 more places to serve in the next race. Mercedes could clinch the Constructors' Championship this weekend if they outscore Red Bull by 41 or more points (with 43 points for a 1-2). This is somewhat unlikely given (amongst other factors) that the race is likely to be hit by a typhoon, so it could well be curtailed and only half-points (or even worse no points) will be awarded. In other news: Kvyat to Red Bull next year, replacing Vettel
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Post by paulgilb on Oct 5, 2014 23:38:44 GMT 1
Well I was proven wrong here - although given what happened to Bianchi I probably won't criticise any more red flags/safety cars due to rain.
Talking of Bianchi, I'm surprised that there wasn't more mention of him during the race - not just the crash (I don't think the commentators even mentioned it until after the red flag - initially I assumed he'd broken down somewhere), but also the fact that he was running P3 briefly did not get alluded to at all (even though he was clearly not going to stay there).
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